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Guide / Analytics

Simulation

Your closed trades, drawn at random thousands of times.

Each simulated run takes trades from your own results, either drawing with replacement or reordering the same trades, and builds a balance curve. The chart shows the median and the 25th–75th and 5th–95th percentile bands. Beside it: the chance of finishing in profit, the typical and 5%/95% final balance, the typical worst drawdown, and the chance of losing half.

Tick Test against a challenge to give it a profit target and a maximum loss, each as a percentage of the starting balance with the dollar amount beside it (the loss fixed, or trailing from the equity high). It then reports the chance of passing and of breaching first.

  • Re-roll changes the seed. The same seed always gives the same result, so a figure can be reproduced.
  • It needs at least two trades and says little under about thirty, and warns you.
  • It shows the spread of luck for an edge you already have. It is not a forecast.